鲍威尔演讲要点：

1、承认通胀仍然过高的现实

今天我想向诸位提供一份FOMC恢复美国经济价格稳定的进展报告，恢复价格稳定旨在造福美国人民。报告必须先承认通胀率仍然过高的现实。我和我的同事切身地意识到了高通胀正在造成重大的困难，使预算紧张而薪水的购买力也变得吃紧。对于那些最无力支付食品、住房和交通等必需品成本的人来说，通胀尤其痛苦。保持价格稳定是美联储的责任，也是我们经济的基石。没有价格稳定，经济对任何人都无济于事。需要强调的是，没有价格稳定，我们就无法实现惠及所有人的可持续的强劲劳动力市场状况。

原文：
Today I will offer a progress report on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC)efforts to restore price stability to the U.S.economy for the benefit of the American people.The report must begin by acknowledging the reality that inflation remains far too high.My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is imposing significant hardship,straining budgets and shrinking what paychecks will buy.This is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food,housing,and transportation.Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.Without price stability,the economy does not work for anyone.In particular,without price stability,we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

2、核心通胀（PCE）下降，但要注意下降后的再度回升

根据我们目前的估计，截至今年10月的12个月个人消费支出(PCE)通胀率为6%（图1）。虽然迄今为止收到的10月份通胀数据显示出令人欣喜的下行意外，但这只是单月的数据，而此前我们才经历了两个月的通胀上行意外。正如图1所表明的，数据下降的当月往往紧随其后的是通胀的再度回升。我们需要更多的证据才能让我们确信通胀率确实在下降。从任何标准来看，通胀率仍然太高。

原文：
We currently estimate that 12-month personal consumption expenditures (PCE)inflation through October ran at 6.0 percent (figure 1).1 While October inflation data received so far showed a welcome surprise to the downside,these are a single month's data, which followed upside surprises over the previous two months.As figure 1 makes clear,down months in the data have often been followed by renewed increases.It will take substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining.By any standard,inflation remains much too high.

3、通胀可能明年大幅下降，但是未来仍然充满不确定性

通胀何时会下降？我可以通过私人部门预测者或FOMC参与者的通胀预测来回答这个问题，预测广泛地指向了明年（通胀）可能大幅下降。但是，一年多来，预测者一直在预测通胀会下降，而通胀却顽固地横向移动。事实是，通货膨胀的未来路径仍然非常不确定。现在，让我们抛开预测，审视我们认为需要看到的宏观经济条件，以便在一段时间内将通胀率降至2%。

原文：
I could answer this question by pointing to the inflation forecasts of private-sector forecasters or of FOMC participants,which broadly show a significant decline over the next year.But forecasts have been predicting just such a decline for more than a year,while inflation has moved stubbornly sideways.The truth is that the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain.For now,let's put aside the forecasts and look instead to the macroeconomic conditions we think we need to see to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.

4、终端利率很可能比9月会议和经济预测摘要时的4.6%更高一些

首先，我们需要将利率提高到一个有足够限制性的水平，使通胀恢复到2%。至于什么水平的利率才是足够限制性的则有很大的不确定性，尽管毫无疑问，我们已经取得了实质性的进展，自3月份以来，我们将联邦基金利率的目标区间范围提高了3.75%。正如联储上次的会后声明所指出的，我们预计持续提高利率将是适当的。在我看来，终端利率很可能需要比9月会议和经济预测摘要时的数字更高一些。我将在评论的最后回到政策问题上，但现在我只想说，我们还有更多的工作要做。

原文：
For starters,we need to raise interest rates to a level that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent.There is considerable uncertainty about what rate will be sufficient,although there is no doubt that we have made substantial progress, raising our target range for the federal funds rate by 3.75 percentage points since March.As our last postmeeting statement indicates,we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. It seems to me likely that the ultimate level of rates will need to be somewhat higher than thought at the time of the September meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.I will return to policy at the end of my comments,but for now,I will simply say that we have more ground to cover.

5、经济需求的增长已经放缓，我们预计增长需要在一段持续期内保持较慢的速度

去年，经济重启推升了美国的实际GDP增长，增速达到非常强劲的5.7%。今年，实际GDP在前三个季度基本持平，而各项指标显示本季度增长温和，这似乎可能使今年的总体经济增长非常温和。有几个因素致使增长放缓，包括重启和疫情期财政支持的消褪，俄乌冲突的全球影响，以及我们的货币政策行动，政策收紧了金融条件，正对经济活动构成影响，尤其是在房地产等对利率敏感的部门。经济需求的增长已经放缓，我们预计增长需要在一段持续期内保持较慢的速度。

原文：
Last year,the ongoing reopening of the economy boosted real gross domestic product (GDP)growth to a very strong 5.7 percent. This year,GDP was roughly flat through the first three quarters,and indicators point to modest growth this quarter,which seems likely to bring the year in with very modest growth overall.Several factors contributed to this slowing growth,including the waning effects of reopening and of pandemic fiscal support,the global implications of Russia's war against Ukraine,and our policy actions,which tightened financial conditions and are affecting economic activity, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors such as housing.We can say that demand growth has slowed,and we expect that this growth will need to remain at a slower pace for a sustained period.

6、核心通胀率切分为三个组成部分：核心商品通胀率、住房服务通胀率和住房以外的核心服务通胀率

尽管过去一年政策收紧且增长放缓，但我们仍未看到通胀放缓的明显进展。为了评估要怎样才能使通胀下降，需要将核心通胀率切分为三个组成部分进行分析：核心商品通胀率、住房服务通胀率和住房以外的核心服务通胀率（图2）。

原文：
Despite the tighter policy and slower growth over the past year,we have not seen clear progress on slowing inflation.To assess what it will take to get inflation down,it is useful to break core inflation into three component categories:core goods inflation,housing services inflation,and inflation in core services other than housing （figure 2).

7、疫情期出现的劳动力供应短缺一不太可能被很快解决

劳动力市场紧凑的迹象在2021年中期突然浮现。当时的失业率远远高于疫情之前未有紧凑迹象的3.5%的水平。就业水平仍然比疫情前的水平低了数百万。回顾过去，我们可以看到，疫情期出现了重大且持续的劳动力供应短缺一而这种短缺似乎不太可能被很快解决。

原文：
Signs of elevated labor market tightness emerged suddenly in mid-2021.The unemployment rate at the time was much higher than the 3.5 percent that had prevailed without major signs of tightness before the pandemic.Employment was still millions below its level on the eve of the pandemic.Looking back,we can see that a significant and persistent labor supply shortfall opened up during the pandemic-a shortfall that appears unlikely to fully close anytime soon.

8、放缓加息步伐的时机可能最快在12月的议息会议上到来

货币政策对经济和通货膨胀的影响具有不确定的滞后性，而且我们迄今为止的快速紧缩政策的全部效果还没有显现出来。因此，当我们接近足以使通货膨胀率下降的约束水平时，放缓我们的加息步伐是说得通的。放缓加息步伐的时机可能最快在12月的议息会议上到来。考虑到我们在政策紧缩方面的进展，放缓的时间节点远没有我们需要进一步提高利率以控制通货膨胀，且有必要将政策保持在限制性水平的持续期等问题重要。恢复价格稳定可能需要在一段时间内将政策保持在限制性水平。历史警示我们不要过早地放松政策。我们将坚持到底，直到大功告成。

原文：
Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags,and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt.Thus,it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down.The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.Given our progress in tightening policy,the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation,and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level.It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time.History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.We will stay the course until the job is done.

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